Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.397977 10.445337 11.609926 13.010253 14.660896 16.560533 18.935304
2025-04-20 8.611218 10.105586 11.904339 14.267178 17.348751 21.320056 26.980911
2025-04-27 7.848179 9.537704 11.679996 14.669710 18.862217 24.748633 34.079347
2025-05-04 6.988713 8.694572 10.935475 14.198115 19.019918 26.241327 38.694711
2025-05-11 6.585097 8.380967 10.823535 14.534530 20.324980 29.618384 47.239057
2025-05-18 6.103536 7.901647 10.412444 14.354760 20.776802 31.685435 54.125272
2025-05-25 5.705275 7.496390 10.055780 14.194145 21.205411 33.765911 61.751634
2025-06-01 5.393404 7.184549 9.799637 14.147342 21.798134 36.248849 71.228357
2025-06-08 5.050443 6.798933 9.394523 13.804833 21.804092 37.580489 78.560597
2025-06-15 4.821830 6.565468 9.201029 13.787885 22.393713 40.228666 90.628289
2025-06-22 4.500219 6.169886 8.721501 13.228130 21.863650 40.333584 95.514171
2025-06-29 4.194916 5.782302 8.229127 12.601176 21.120777 39.813491 98.301467
2025-07-06 3.936368 5.462716 7.841130 12.154151 20.741987 40.221270 105.067572
2025-07-13 4.000902 5.651586 8.298551 13.292314 23.840251 50.123721 155.621259
2025-07-20 3.917939 5.597822 8.342125 13.656460 25.339104 56.446099 200.640493
2025-07-27 3.710657 5.329906 7.998281 13.229833 24.953505 57.207502 218.397159
2025-08-03 3.636163 5.275412 8.021585 13.534227 26.356201 64.000202 284.511434
2025-08-10 3.496282 5.104223 7.825890 13.371603 26.583095 67.074619 332.594633
2025-08-17 3.369160 4.948003 7.646947 13.226238 26.832245 70.362152 392.098908
2025-08-24 3.265358 4.826102 7.522473 13.183867 27.347555 74.891342 480.463013
2025-08-31 3.132126 4.647763 7.283787 12.873615 27.090356 76.342936 540.853318
2025-09-07 3.046210 4.547166 7.183741 12.858256 27.654019 81.471990 680.618622
2025-09-14 2.902320 4.340162 6.873500 12.350533 26.741072 79.888475 704.956609